The moment when, 50 years ago, Neil Armstrong planted his foot on the surface of the Moon inspired awe, pride and wonder around the world. This newspaper argued that “man, from this day on, can go wheresoever in the universe his mind wills and his ingenuity contrives…to the planets, sooner rather than later, man is now certain to go.” But no. The Moon landing was an aberration, a goal achieved not as an end in itself but as a means of signalling America’s extraordinary capabilities. That point, once made, required no remaking. Only 571 people have been into orbit; and since 1972 no one has ventured much farther into space than Des Moines is from Chicago.
The next 50 years will look very different. Falling costs, new technologies, Chinese and Indian ambitions, and a new generation of entrepreneurs promise a bold era of space development. It will almost certainly involve tourism for the rich and better communications networks for all; in the long run it might involve mineral exploitation and even mass transportation. Space will become ever more like an extension of Earth—an arena for firms and private individuals, not just governments. But for this promise to be fulfilled the world needs to create a system of laws to govern the heavens—both in peacetime and, should it come to that, in war.
The development of space thus far has been focused on facilitating activity down below—mainly satellite communications for broadcasting and navigation. Now two things are changing. First, geopolitics is stoking a new push to send humans beyond the shallows of low-Earth orbit. China plans to land people on the Moon by 2035. President Donald Trump’s administration wants Americans to be back there by 2024. Falling costs make this showing off more affordable than before. Apollo cost hundreds of billions of dollars (in today’s money). Now tens of billions are the ticket price.
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It is a mistake to promote space as a romanticised Wild West, an anarchic frontier where humanity can throw off its fetters and rediscover its destiny. For space to fulfil its promise governance is required. At a time when the world cannot agree on rules for the terrestrial trade of steel bars and soybeans that may seem like a big ask. But without it the potential of all that lies beyond Earth will at best wait another 50 years to be fulfilled. At worst space could add to Earth’s problems. | 五十年前,尼尔·阿姆斯特朗踏上月球表面的那一刻让全球为之敬畏,为之自豪,为之惊叹。本刊曾提到:“从今日起,人类在宇宙中可以到达心之所向,才之所至的任何角落……人类必将很快登上一个又一个星球”。但现实情况并非如此。美国登月其实别有用意,其志不在登月本身而在于彰显美利坚的雄厚实力。该目的一旦达到便无需反复证明。因此目前仅有571人曾进入太空,且自1972年以后人类进一步探索太空的深度还不及得梅因市到芝加哥市的距离。 但未来的50年将会是另一番面貌。此间成本将不断下降,新技术将纷纷问世,中印两国将大展宏图,新一代企业家也将让开发太空进入一个敢闯敢试的时代。开发面向富人的太空旅行和升级便利全球的通信网络几乎可以说是指日可待。而从长远来看,矿产开发甚至是大规模运输或许也将会提上日程。太空将变得更像是地球的延伸——在这一舞台中活动的不仅有政府,也有企业和个人。但要实现这一图景,全球需要建设一套管理太空的法律体系——在和平时期推行,如爆发战争也应如是。 到目前为止,太空开发一直侧重于为地球上的人类活动提供助益——其中以应用于广播和导航的卫星通信为主。但现在出现了两个变化。第一,地缘政治催生了新的紧迫感,促使各国派宇航员到近地轨道以外进行太空探索。中国计划到2035年实现登月计划。特朗普政府也要求美国在2024年之前重新登月。由于成本不断下降,这种秀国力的方式比以往更为经济。阿波罗登月的成本折算为现在的货币高达数千亿美元,而现在只需要数百亿美元就能“上船”。 [ … ] 把太空宣扬成传奇的蛮荒西部,把它当成无政府主义的前沿,认为人类可以抛开束缚在那里交好运是错误的。要想让太空为我们所用就必须有管理。但是现在,我们连地球上的钢筋、大豆交易规则都无法得出一致的意见,制定太空管理看来将是一大难题。但如果管理缺位,最好的情况是太空显现出来的种种潜能将要再等50年才可实现。最坏的情况是太空将会让本已困难重重的地球难上加难。 |