The moment when, 50 years ago, Neil Armstrong planted his foot on the surface of the Moon inspired awe, pride and wonder around the world. This newspaper argued that “man, from this day on, can go wheresoever in the universe his mind wills and his ingenuity contrives…to the planets, sooner rather than later, man is now certain to go.” But no. The Moon landing was an aberration, a goal achieved not as an end in itself but as a means of signalling America’s extraordinary capabilities. That point, once made, required no remaking. Only 571 people have been into orbit; and since 1972 no one has ventured much farther into space than Des Moines is from Chicago.
The next 50 years will look very different. Falling costs, new technologies, Chinese and Indian ambitions, and a new generation of entrepreneurs promise a bold era of space development. It will almost certainly involve tourism for the rich and better communications networks for all; in the long run it might involve mineral exploitation and even mass transportation. Space will become ever more like an extension of Earth—an arena for firms and private individuals, not just governments. But for this promise to be fulfilled the world needs to create a system of laws to govern the heavens—both in peacetime and, should it come to that, in war.
The development of space thus far has been focused on facilitating activity down below—mainly satellite communications for broadcasting and navigation. Now two things are changing. First, geopolitics is stoking a new push to send humans beyond the shallows of low-Earth orbit. China plans to land people on the Moon by 2035. President Donald Trump’s administration wants Americans to be back there by 2024. Falling costs make this showing off more affordable than before. Apollo cost hundreds of billions of dollars (in today’s money). Now tens of billions are the ticket price.
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It is a mistake to promote space as a romanticised Wild West, an anarchic frontier where humanity can throw off its fetters and rediscover its destiny. For space to fulfil its promise governance is required. At a time when the world cannot agree on rules for the terrestrial trade of steel bars and soybeans that may seem like a big ask. But without it the potential of all that lies beyond Earth will at best wait another 50 years to be fulfilled. At worst space could add to Earth’s problems. | 50年前,当尼尔·阿姆斯特朗(Neil Armstrong)将他的脚印留在月球表面的那一刻,全世界都为此感到敬畏、骄傲和惊奇。本报曾对此评论说:“人类,从这一天开始,只要我们勇于梦想,凭借我们的聪明才智就可以设法到达宇宙中的任何一个角落……下一个目标是诸行星,这会很快实现,而非遥不可及。人类毫无疑问正在向着行星进军。”然而,他的预言并没有实现。登陆月球的壮举越来越像是一段反常的插曲,因为它并非目的本身,而是一种展示美国超凡国家实力的手段。一旦目标达成,就没有必要再重复一次了。回望历史,只有571位宇航员被送入过地球轨道;而自1972年以来,再没有人进入太空的深度比得上从得梅因(Des Moines)到芝加哥的距离。 但未来的50年看起来会大为不同。不断降低的成本,不断涌现的新技术,中国和印度的雄心壮志,以及新一代企业家都在许诺一个空间技术发展的勇敢新时代的到来。几乎可以肯定的是,在这个新时代里,我们会看到越来越多面向富人的太空旅游业,以及面向所有人的通信网络的升级;从长远来看,这个新时代可能会涉及宇宙矿物的开采,甚至大规模运输。太空将会变得越来越像是地球的延伸——一个企业和个人的舞台,而非像过去一样只政府的专利。但要实现这一应许,人类世界需要共同建立一套法律体系来统治天空——不只在和平时期适用,也应包含可能会到来的战争。 迄今为止,空间技术发展的重心一直集中在基于卫星通信技术的广播和导航事业上面。现在有两件事正在发生改变。首先,地缘政治的博弈正在促使各国追求把宇航员送入更深的太空,而不再满足于利用近地轨道的浅层区域。中国计划在2035年实现载人登月。唐纳德·特朗普总统的政府希望美国人在2024年之前重返月球。不断下降的成本使得这种“炫耀式演出”比过去更加优惠。阿波罗计划曾花费了数千亿美元(以今天的货币计算),而现在的“门票”价格已经槛降低到了数百亿美元。 […] 有种思潮倾向于把太空推销成为另一个浪漫化的狂野西部,一个可以让人性彻底摆脱束缚,重新发现自身的命运的无政府主义边疆——这无疑是个错误。事实上,为了让太空实现它的应许,人类需要对其进行治理。然而,在一个连地球表面的钢筋和大豆贸易都无法达成规则共识的时代,这似乎是一个奢侈的要求。但如果没有规则,地球之外的所有潜能最少也要再等50年才会被实现。而在最坏的情况下,开发太空可能会加剧地球本身的问题。 |