The moment when, 50 years ago, Neil Armstrong planted his foot on the surface of the Moon inspired awe, pride and wonder around the world. This newspaper argued that “man, from this day on, can go wheresoever in the universe his mind wills and his ingenuity contrives…to the planets, sooner rather than later, man is now certain to go.” But no. The Moon landing was an aberration, a goal achieved not as an end in itself but as a means of signalling America’s extraordinary capabilities. That point, once made, required no remaking. Only 571 people have been into orbit; and since 1972 no one has ventured much farther into space than Des Moines is from Chicago.
The next 50 years will look very different. Falling costs, new technologies, Chinese and Indian ambitions, and a new generation of entrepreneurs promise a bold era of space development. It will almost certainly involve tourism for the rich and better communications networks for all; in the long run it might involve mineral exploitation and even mass transportation. Space will become ever more like an extension of Earth—an arena for firms and private individuals, not just governments. But for this promise to be fulfilled the world needs to create a system of laws to govern the heavens—both in peacetime and, should it come to that, in war.
The development of space thus far has been focused on facilitating activity down below—mainly satellite communications for broadcasting and navigation. Now two things are changing. First, geopolitics is stoking a new push to send humans beyond the shallows of low-Earth orbit. China plans to land people on the Moon by 2035. President Donald Trump’s administration wants Americans to be back there by 2024. Falling costs make this showing off more affordable than before. Apollo cost hundreds of billions of dollars (in today’s money). Now tens of billions are the ticket price.
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It is a mistake to promote space as a romanticised Wild West, an anarchic frontier where humanity can throw off its fetters and rediscover its destiny. For space to fulfil its promise governance is required. At a time when the world cannot agree on rules for the terrestrial trade of steel bars and soybeans that may seem like a big ask. But without it the potential of all that lies beyond Earth will at best wait another 50 years to be fulfilled. At worst space could add to Earth’s problems. | 五十年前,尼尔·阿姆斯特朗踏上月球表面的那一刻,在全世界引发了敬畏、骄傲和惊讶之情。本报曾报道说,“从这一天开始,人类可以在宇宙间随意徜徉,尽情创造...不久,人类肯定可以登上任何一个行星。”但现实并非如此。登月是非常规项目,目标不是登上月球本身,而是彰显美国超凡实力的手段。目的已然达到,无需再次展示一次实力。只有571人进入过太空;而自从1972年以来,人们对太空探险深入的距离,并没有比得梅因到芝加哥的距离远多少。 下一个五十年会有非常不同的面貌。成本不断降低、新技术逐步应用、中国和印度雄心日渐勃发,以及新一代的企业家信誓旦旦,进入大胆开发太空的时代。几乎可以肯定,富人会有太空旅游,普罗大众会有更好的通信网络;长远来说,还会有采矿,甚至会有公共交通。太空会变成更像是地球的延伸 - 不再仅仅是政府之间互相角力的地盘,也是企业和私人活动的场所。但要让这一切成为现实,世界需要创建一套管治太空的法律系统 - 无论是和平年间,还是战争期间(假如战争发生在太空的话)。 迄今太空开发一直专注于向下、太空下方的活动 - 主要是卫星通讯,用于广播和导航。现在有两个方面在改变。首先,地缘政治推动了新一轮的竞赛,要把人从近地轨道的浅湾中送入深空。中国计划在2035年之前派人登上月球。唐纳德·特朗普总统这届政府希望美国人在2024年之前重返月球。跟以前相比,不断下降的成本更能支付得起这样的耀眼活动。换算成现今的币值,阿波罗计划耗资数以千亿计。现在只要数百亿元就可以入场一比高低。 [ … ] 有人把太空开发比作诗情画意的西部大开发,在一个无法无天的前沿地带,人类抛弃所有的桎梏羁绊,重新发掘自己的命运;这是个错误。要想实现太空开发的愿望,必须要有所管治。在一个连地球上钢筋和大豆的贸易都无法达成一致规则的时代,管治太空似乎是太大的奢求了。但没有管治的话,所有位于地球之外的发展潜力还是再等五十年来实现吧。最坏的情况是,太空会给地球添乱。 |