The moment when, 50 years ago, Neil Armstrong planted his foot on the surface of the Moon inspired awe, pride and wonder around the world. This newspaper argued that “man, from this day on, can go wheresoever in the universe his mind wills and his ingenuity contrives…to the planets, sooner rather than later, man is now certain to go.” But no. The Moon landing was an aberration, a goal achieved not as an end in itself but as a means of signalling America’s extraordinary capabilities. That point, once made, required no remaking. Only 571 people have been into orbit; and since 1972 no one has ventured much farther into space than Des Moines is from Chicago.
The next 50 years will look very different. Falling costs, new technologies, Chinese and Indian ambitions, and a new generation of entrepreneurs promise a bold era of space development. It will almost certainly involve tourism for the rich and better communications networks for all; in the long run it might involve mineral exploitation and even mass transportation. Space will become ever more like an extension of Earth—an arena for firms and private individuals, not just governments. But for this promise to be fulfilled the world needs to create a system of laws to govern the heavens—both in peacetime and, should it come to that, in war.
The development of space thus far has been focused on facilitating activity down below—mainly satellite communications for broadcasting and navigation. Now two things are changing. First, geopolitics is stoking a new push to send humans beyond the shallows of low-Earth orbit. China plans to land people on the Moon by 2035. President Donald Trump’s administration wants Americans to be back there by 2024. Falling costs make this showing off more affordable than before. Apollo cost hundreds of billions of dollars (in today’s money). Now tens of billions are the ticket price.
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It is a mistake to promote space as a romanticised Wild West, an anarchic frontier where humanity can throw off its fetters and rediscover its destiny. For space to fulfil its promise governance is required. At a time when the world cannot agree on rules for the terrestrial trade of steel bars and soybeans that may seem like a big ask. But without it the potential of all that lies beyond Earth will at best wait another 50 years to be fulfilled. At worst space could add to Earth’s problems. | 50年前,就在尼尔·阿姆斯特朗把双脚踏上月球表面的那一刻,在世界各地,人们的敬畏、骄傲、惊奇之情油然而升。本报曾作如下论述:“从今天起,人类将能抵达宇宙中的任何一个其愿意前往的、其创造力能够予以谋划的地方∙∙∙∙∙∙终将有一天,人类也会造访行星,而且这一天不会太久远”。然而,实际情况却与此有出入。当年的登月是一项偏离了人们的思维定势的工程。实现登月这一目标本身并非目的,而是用以彰显美国的非凡能力的一种手段;而美国的非凡能力一旦得到了证明,就不需要再去证明了。时至今日,仅有571人曾进入过太空轨道;自1972年以来,太空冒险挺进得最远的人的行程也并不比从芝加哥到得梅因的距离远多少。 未来的50年的态势将截然不同。成本的下降、新技术的问世、中国和印度的勃勃雄心、新一代企业家的崛起,都昭示着一个大胆的太空开发时代即将到来。几乎可以肯定的是,太空开发将涉及为富人提供旅游服务、为全人类提供更好的通讯网络。从长远来看,太空开发可能涉及矿产开采甚至大众运输。太空将变得越来越像地球的延伸,那里将不仅是政府的活动舞台,而且也是企业和个人施展拳脚的所在。但是,为了让这一可期的前景得以实现,世界需要建立一套用于在和平时期甚至在战争时期(万一发生战争的话)对天空进行监管的法律体系。 迄今为止,太空开发一直侧重于为在地球上所开展的活动提供助力,主要项目就是用于广播电视信号传送和导航的卫星通信。如今正在发生着两个方面的变化:首先,地缘政治正在激发着一股把人类送到比近地轨道的“浅滩”更远的地方的新的推动力。中国计划在2035年之前实现载人登月。美国总统特朗普的政府希望美国人在2024年之前重返月球。成本的下降使登月这种“炫耀性工程”比以前更易于负担。阿波罗计划的花费以数千亿美元计(折合成今天的美元),而这样的项目要是在现在开展,则仅需花费数百亿美元而已。 [ … ] 浪漫化的“蛮荒西部”曾经是一个处于无政府状态的前沿地带,在其间人们能够摆脱各种束缚、重新发现自己的命运;而通过将太空比拟为一个浪漫化的“蛮荒西部”的方式来对其进行推广,则是一种错误的做法。为了让太空能够实现其可期的前景,监管是不可或缺的。然而,在世界尚无法对在地球上所进行的钢条和大豆贸易的规则达成共识的这一时代,要求对太空实行监管似乎有些强人所难。但是,如果不对其实行监管,往好的方面说,地球以外的地方的潜能至少要再等50年才能得到充分发挥;往坏的方面说,太空可能会加剧地球上现存的问题。 |